I thought that was the weakest section of your post. It's very strange to rely on intuition to justify dismissing longtermism *in favor of shrimp* (!) -- presumably the reason why it "seems wrong" to prioritize longtermist causes is just that the potential benefits are not as salient; that's not the sort of intuition that one should give…
I thought that was the weakest section of your post. It's very strange to rely on intuition to justify dismissing longtermism *in favor of shrimp* (!) -- presumably the reason why it "seems wrong" to prioritize longtermist causes is just that the potential benefits are not as salient; that's not the sort of intuition that one should give any weight to. (We also know that people are very bad at thinking intuitively about probability.) If you're going to "shut up and multiply" on behalf of shrimp, why not on behalf of future people?
I think I reject both. Shrimp has ripple effects given the probability of many simulations and various other tail risks like spreading shrimp farming to space. And it's hard to believe that, say, giving to prevent 10,000 negative utility monsters from being tortured viciously for a dollar is lower impact than longtermism stuff.
Shrimp welfare seems weird, but only because of bias and systematic ethical errors.
I thought that was the weakest section of your post. It's very strange to rely on intuition to justify dismissing longtermism *in favor of shrimp* (!) -- presumably the reason why it "seems wrong" to prioritize longtermist causes is just that the potential benefits are not as salient; that's not the sort of intuition that one should give any weight to. (We also know that people are very bad at thinking intuitively about probability.) If you're going to "shut up and multiply" on behalf of shrimp, why not on behalf of future people?
Quick argument:
1. Anything with plausibly compounding positive "ripple effects" strictly dominates anything that lacks such ripple effects. [See https://www.goodthoughts.blog/p/seeking-ripple-effects ]
2. Stunning shrimp has minimal chance of compounding ripple effects, compared to other causes.
Therefore,
3. Stunning shrimp is strictly dominated by other causes.
I think I reject both. Shrimp has ripple effects given the probability of many simulations and various other tail risks like spreading shrimp farming to space. And it's hard to believe that, say, giving to prevent 10,000 negative utility monsters from being tortured viciously for a dollar is lower impact than longtermism stuff.
Shrimp welfare seems weird, but only because of bias and systematic ethical errors.
I agree with your last sentence, I just think it applies equally to flimsy dismissals of longtermism!
Yeah plausible.