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Anthony DiGiovanni's avatar

Sounds like a false dichotomy. You could also have option (iii): A set of priors that regards it as indeterminate whether value concordance or value discordance is more likely. (I defend this kind of perspective here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NKx8sHcAyCiKT723b/should-you-go-with-your-best-guess-against-precise)

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